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Market Summary – 2025

Market Summary – 3/23/25

The stock market experienced a rebound last week, breaking a four-week losing streak for major indices.

S&P 500 performance:

• Gained 0.5% for the week
• Closed at 5,667.56 on Friday, up 0.08% for the day
• Snapped a four-week losing streak

Nasdaq Composite:

• Rose 0.5% on Friday, closing at 17,784.05
• Gained 0.2% for the week

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• Increased by 1.2% for the week
• Closed at 41,985.35 on Friday, up 0.08%

Market volatility:

• Indices experienced intraday fluctuations, with major indexes rebounding from lows after President Trump’s comments on tariff flexibility
• “Quadruple witching” event on Friday led to over $4.7 trillion in notional options exposure expiring
• Sector performance:
• Energy stocks outperformed the broader market, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) surging nearly 8% year-to-date
• Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sectors have dropped over 8% and 12%, respectively, year-to-date

Economic factors:

• Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and indicated plans for two additional rate cuts this year
• Concerns about stagflation risks due to softening labor market conditions and accelerating inflation
• The market’s recovery was attributed to reduced tariff-related headlines and reassurances from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding manageable economic repercussions from trade conflicts.

Market Summary – 3/14/25

Recap

The US stock market experienced a significant decline this week, marking its worst performance since September. The S&P 500 fell 3.1%, entering correction territory on Thursday after dropping more than 10% from its recent high. The NASDAQ Composite suffered an even steeper decline of 3.5%, also entering correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared slightly better but still declined by 2.4%.

Key factors contributing to the market’s poor performance included:

• Trade tensions: The US imposed 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico, as well as increased duties on Chinese imports. This led to retaliatory measures from these trading partners, causing market uncertainty.
• Technology sector weakness: Sharp declines in technology stocks, particularly in the semiconductor industry, weighed heavily on the NASDAQ.
• Economic concerns: Ongoing uncertainty about trade policy and potential federal spending cuts contributed to market anxiety.
• Manufacturing slowdown: The ISM manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a slight expansion but with a sharp drop in new orders, indicating potential economic challenges ahead.

Despite these negative factors, there were some positive developments, including a cooler-than-expected inflation reading and a slight rebound in equities towards the end of the week. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious as investors await more clarity on trade policies and upcoming economic data releases.

Major News and Events

Based on the recent market developments, there are several major news events and factors that investors should pay attention to:

• Market Correction: The S&P 500 has entered correction territory, falling more than 10% from its record high on February 19, 2025. This has resulted in a loss of approximately $5 trillion in market value over three weeks.
• Trade Tensions: President Trump’s escalating trade conflicts with key trading partners, including new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, have created significant market uncertainty.
• Economic Concerns: Indicators of slowing economic growth have emerged, including disappointing consumer sentiment reports and lackluster forecasts from major retailers.
• Tech Sector Volatility: The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, has experienced significant fluctuations. Nvidia’s stock has fallen 17% since February 19, and the Round Magnificent ETF (AGS) has dropped 16%.
• Federal Reserve Meeting: The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on March 19 will be closely watched for any indications of potential changes in monetary policy in response to recent economic developments.
• Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference: Nvidia’s weeklong conference starting March 18 could be a catalyst for the company’s stock and the broader AI sector. Investors will be looking for updates on new chip releases and developments in AI, gaming, and robotics.
• Market Rebound: Despite the overall negative trend, stocks rallied significantly on Friday, March 14, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite jumping 2.1% and 2.6% respectively. However, major indexes are still down for the fourth consecutive week.

These events highlight the current market volatility and the complex interplay of economic, political, and technological factors affecting investor sentiment.